The Scientific Method: The Need

Biased Views - A Fundamental Nature of Human Knowledge

Tanveer went home tired that day. It was the beginning of the month and he had to work with his staff to ship the orders he got. While on his way home, he met Karunakaran, his best friend. They sat down in Mochazilla and over a large Italian Coffee, Tanveer laid down his business situation. Karunakaran said:

People visit these malls not only because they get good prices on groceries, but also because they get a lot of other things as well. People go to Mantri Square. They can shop for groceries, eat out with family, watch a movie and come back home late in the night. They spend a day there. You cannot offer what a mall can offer. Frankly, I think now is the time for you to start something different. Maybe you should close the shop.

Tanveer was a little disappointed at this answer. Now back at home, his disappointment was noticed by his mother. She asked him what the matter was. Tanveer shared his dilemma and what his friend told him, knowing that more than once her wisdom helped him to grow his business. His mom said.

Arey! Going to mall is different. Coming to our shop is different. Not all people go to mall all the time. What people really see in a grocery store like ours is the convenience and personal touch. When someone calls for placing an order, they are sure about the quality of the groceries and the service that can be expected from us. That is why they come to us. Those people who are going to malls will see the difference shortly. They are going there because its something new. They will come back. In the meanwhile, you sit down and figure out how you can come up with some reduced prices so that existing customers can be kept happy.

Tanveer was now really stuck. Both his friend and mother seemed right. His friend was modern and he knew a lot about malls and shopping trends. His mother literally ran the store with his father, when he was alive. She knew, better than anyone, the value of customers.

He dozed off as he thought how interesting a day would be tomorrow!

The Nature of Human Knowledge

Our knowledge about any phenomenon depends on two things.

1. Our ability to observe and
2. Our ability to analyze

Our ability to observe is limited. For example, we cannot hear any sound that has a frequency lower than 20Hz or higher than 20000Hz. These are the natural limits for our hearing ability. Similarly there are limits on our vision, taste, smell and feel. These are our natural filters that limit our view of the world around us. In other words, 

We are rigged to get only limited amount of information from our surroundings.

Analysis acts as a tool to enhance our ability to observe. What we do not sense through our sense organs directly, we analyze and infer through logic. For example, when we see smoke somewhere, we infer that there is a fire somewhere. We may not have seen the fire, but logic tells us that the source of the smoke can be fire and nothing else. In other words,

We overcome our limitation of direct observation through analysis.

Our ability to analyze is also limited. This is because we cannot make precise and accurate measurements with our sense organs. For instance, we can say that a sound is “loud” or “weak” but cannot say what is the exact decibel value of the sound or its frequency. Our ability to analyze is limited also because we are not sensitive to “all sensory inputs” to the same degree.

We usually pay attention to what is “abnormal” or “different” than what is “normal” or “similar”. For instance, how many of us remember what is the first thing we see as soon as we are awake. Unless there is a marked difference in our usual surroundings, we don't even notice the things that surround us. We apply a lot of mental filters in order to make sense of our surroundings. In other words, 

We are rigged to be sensitive to abnormalities and insensitive to normal things.

Because our ability to observe and analyze is limited, all knowledge that we have is “subjective”. The same can be said about Karunakaran's as well as Tanveer's Mother's knowledge. If we ask Karunakaran, exactly how many of his friends spend how much time in a mall in a week, he will not have an answer to it. Similarly if we ask Tanveer's mother how many customers are likely to turn back to our store, she will not have a number to quote. Their advise is based on personal observation and a personal logic. Hence we call their knowledge subjective.

Just because knowledge is subjective doesn't mean that it is wrong or it is not useful. It only means that such knowledge is limited in its application. If Tanveer bases his decisions on either of the opinions expressed above without checking and making sure which one is closer to the truth, it might result in an expensive mistake. Sometimes such mistakes might prove to be fatal. 

The Need for Scientific Method

Thus a wise decision maker seeks out methods through which such opinions can be validated appropriately. The process through which one can validate subjective knowledge and increase the validity and reliability of such knowledge is called The Scientific Method. Thus, when one follows the scientific method it can be said that the bias that is natural to human knowledge is reduced. As a result the probability of making mistakes is reduced.

In the last post, we described how Entrepreneurs, Managers and Executives face dilemmas. If they do not use the scientific method, then their answers will be subjective and the mistakes they can make can prove to be expensive. Thus, they too find it wise to validate the opinions that they receive and choose a course of action based on the truth rather than a whimsical opinion.

Looking Forward

Does such a process exist? What is the basis of such a process? How can we devise such a process? How will it help to make decisions better?

These and other questions are right now ringing in your mind. Wait till you read my next post. But for now, here is the concept map for the post and a few questions you can try answering using the map.

Concept Map

Questions:

1. There is a new concept called Information Overload, which we did not talk about in the post. Guess what that might be and come up with a description of it?

2. Is Information Overload good or bad? Is bias good or bad?

3. How are Bias and Information Overload related?

Hint: From the map we can have two propositions

A. Filters reduce Information Overload

B. Filters cause bias.

What can you infer by looking at these to statements.

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